Geopolitical Shift & India’s Path to Self-Rule

Propelled by the economic repercussions of the Covid-induced lockdowns, the global geopolitical environment is facing a major shift. With the considerable decrease in the US GPD (1), and the dollar spiraling downward (2), the once-strong USofA is on an inevitable path to destruction (3). Governments will feel pressured (4) to pick sides (5), capital flows will change, and foreign reserves will shift (6)—leading to disruptions and adjustments worldwide.

The death of the dollar as the global trade currency is one major change that, at this point, appears inevitable (7), and while China is first in the running to become the newest “super power”, there is another candidate worth taking note of (8). As the fifth largest economy by GDP, India has seen significant growth in recent years, and has the potential to be a strong contender (9). While it has been heavily-hit by the virus, India is amongst the few emerging Asian economies to project a strong pick-up of real GDP over the second half of 2020 (10). The recent issuing of sovereign gold bonds is an interesting development and a key element to maintaining stability in India's economy after the dollar dies (11). Nevertheless, India's biggest issue remains the lack of a cohesive strategy with follow-through solutions, and the inability to stem large country-wide projects (12)

 

References

  1. Goldman Lowers U.S. GDP Forecast, Sees 4.6% Contraction in 2020

  2. The Dollar Standard Slipping Out of Control?

  3. Peter Schiff: The Dollar Crash Will Take Down The Entire US "House of Cards"

  4. Philippines may terminate major CCCC construction deals following US sanctions

  5. Philippines won’t stop infrastructure projects with US-sanctioned Chinese firms

  6. Russia Boosted International Reserves by Over 10%, Gold Stockpile by 28% in One Year

  7. Chinese Banks Urged To Switch From SWIFT And Drop USD In Anticipation Of US Sanctions

  8. Why India Has a Chance to Replace China as Global Economic Leader Post Coronavirus Crisis

  9. How can India be a growth leader? – EXPLAINED

  10. India to post strong enough growth pick up in second half of 2020

  11. Sovereign Gold Bonds - Apply for Sovereign Gold Bond Schemes Online at Kotak Bank

  12. India implodes its own new Silk Road


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