Recession fears have trickled up the wealth classes (1) with the continuing decline of rates in Indonesia (2), India (3), and China (4). South Korean exports continue to drop (5) amidst falling inflation (6), stirring fears of a coming deflation. Air cargo rates hit a 4-year low (7) while auto-manufacturing continues to drop along with rail volume (8).
American big banks seem to be shifting their balance sheet holdings in anticipation of coming turbulence (9). Speculators warn stocks have reached their peak and a downturn is pending (10) as corporate profits no longer justify high valuations. The spread between corporate profits and index valuations has reached 1999 levels indicating there might be a wild ride ahead for 2020 (11).
The IMF had their very own Captain Obvious moment with their belated warning that global growth is coming “close to a standstill” (12). Monetary easing has become ineffective as ever lower rates lead inevitably to reversing effects (13) as more nations join the zero-or-less rate club (14). Not even a temporary truce in the trade war has been able to turn the tide of the economic slowdown (15) as the Chinese industrial sector had its worst collapse to-date (16).
The ever-feared inverted yield curve seems to have reverted slightly (17), leading some to hope this time the recession has been averted, however the evidence suggests they should not be celebrating just yet (18).